Ontario: And Their Off! Kinda…

So Doug Ford & his Conservative regime in Ontario have have finally launched the 'CannaLotto draw' with the first 25 companies approved to apply for cannabis retail storefront licences through the Alcohol & Gaming Commission of Ontario, the provincial government agency in charge of retail cannabis sales in Ontario.

The AGCO opened their expression of interest for retail licences applications on Wednesday 12:01a with the deadline Friday 12:01a & the draw also the same day. They accepted over 17,000 applications from throughout the province.

The AGCO released their list of the winners along with the 'waiting list' of winners almost in the image of union job postings. Where the most senior that are qualified for the position are offered it first then if some of them turn it down they can offer it to the next qualified applicants. But in this case if the applicants are deemed ineligible they lose the $6k non-refundable fee(cha-ching!). They sent with their approved $50,000 bank line-of-credit proof. That makes a total of $150,000 of cold hard cash money right off the top & banking approval for $1.25 million.

Now this isn't just going a walk in the park. Once the companies that are approved they face massive timelines. They first have to complete their application in 5 days(January 18th) & then they have to be selling cannabis as early as April 1st & no later then April 30th or it will result in a $25,000 fine, which means again that only those that has the means, deep pockets or corporations can apply. Oh of which 1/3 of applicants where corporations & the rest private entities.

The winners for the North Region are Anton Lucic 428024 & Saturninus Partners 423124. The Attorney General, Caroline Mulroney, stated after the Conservative regime flip-flopped from stated that they would stay with the Liberal's OCS government run system to the private system. But again first they said they would not cap the number of retail stores, here it comes, flip-flopped again & now because of the 'supply' shortages said that they would cap it first at 25 retail storefronts until Justin Trudeau & his Liberal regime have addressed the cannabis 'supply' issue.

Ok, this is all totally manufactured by the by both government by their over regulation coupled with senselessly capping the retail stores. First, they Feds where never going to be able to sufficiently supply the general population with cannabis via the medical cannabis Licensed Producer system because they simple just do not produce enough. Second, was another point our team correctly predicted, the price point, the government's weed is over priced! Who would have thought?

Higher numbers released by StatsCanada compared to 2015(12% or 2.4 million) showed that roughly 14% of the Canadian population or 4.2 million people are or have consumed cannabis. Meaning that apparently both markets are consuming almost a Kiloton or 1,000,000 kilograms in cannabis per year & these numbers are again also believe to be understated to the actual users.

In 2017, Producers in Canada only produced a mere 80,000 kilograms which is a mere 8% of the market. It does not matter how much money you thought at it. They cannot fill the gap of 92% market share in one year but it does make it ripe for a 'Green Rush' but will result in massive shortages for the consumers.

Now lets compare the Legal & Black Markets. Canadians are paying 49% more or, $9.7 per gram(or $271.6 per ounce) of legal dried cannabis or $6.51 per gram(or $182.28 per ounce) on the Black Market according to StatsCanada, which I should hope will buy you some very high end product for those prices.

...But captain buzz kill here, lets be realistic @$9.7 on the cheap end is only going to get you some low end product with very inaccurate THC percentages that range 6-10%. Which is very vital for the consumer considering the vagueness in Bill C-46(the amendment to the criminal codes regarding impaired driving legations).

...Oh yeah & don't forget that the approved roadside testing device, the Drager 5000, does NOT test for impairment. Only for the presence of the cannabis & illegal substances with a 6-8 hour range when the impairment legislation covers 2-3 hours @ a level of .05 Nano Gram for cannabis. Of which that level was struct down in Colorado last year during a trail for a DUI charge. That Judge declared with evidence provided to him that .05 ng is equivalent to have two screaming children in your back seat of your vehicle! Mothers & Fathers rejoice!

The only reasoning for the limit being set at .05 ng was that because the U.K. & her majesty's kingdom limit is also .05 ng & us being the little colony that could would not dare test mother & have a higher limit than her.

One thing that most of the general population doesn't know is that the Black Market's pricing actually functions like the Stockmarket. The same factors are in play with the exception that the demand will ever be growing, that quality supply will always drive the market with the exception that the quantity of the supply will dictate for how long those prices fluctuate.

A new variable that effected these prices of the Black Market 2 years ago was the 'Dispensary' or 'LP' weed that was being sold drove up the price per gram to $20(or $560 per ounce) along with the fears of what type of retail structure was coming from the Feds. These prices recovered back to the $5-$6(or $140-$168 per ounce) range with the announcement that the Feds will be using the Licensed Producers system to supply the recreational market.

The next factor was the over regulation through legislation via bills C-45 & C-46. All the this meant that the Black Market was going to thrive & not go anywhere also this was manufactured by the top minister in charge, Bill Blair, former Chief of Police of Toronto, the largest city in Canada. Because had they taken the recommendations from their own Cannabis Task Force Committee, they would have chosen to register & regulate Dispensaries & Crafts Cannabis Growers opposed to outlawing & criminalizing them when they where the proven provider by Patients from across the country.

Had the Liberal government implemented most of the recommendations of their Task Force, Bill Blair would have essentially renders the Police Forces budgets & manning from across the country grossly over inflated but they took care of of that with both bills.

The latest predictions are that the shortages will last until 2022 thus enabling the Black Market to thrive & fill the gap especially when the consumers are not going to wait for a inferior product at a 50% surcharge.

This means Justin & the Liberals lied to get elected but the worst part is that with the Andrew Sheer & Conservative Party's schism with Maxime Bernier his Peoples Party of Canada & the way they handled the Dairy Farmers at the Conservative National Party Convention will most likely lead to the PPC splitting the Conservative vote & get them a second term.

One of our resident political analysts has been waiting this to happen for years as it was a recommendation by Ralph Nader when Stephen Harper was in power but it is turning out to be a perfect storm for a re-election or election as Justin seems to be losing MPs at an alarming rate. But non the less it is their election to lose at this point.

So much for making sure it is out of the hand of our children...or lining the pockets of our friends. You decide.

Dab Daba Doo time!

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